Por qué la economía no hundirá el mercado de la vivienda
Si está preocupado por una próxima recesión, no está solo. En los últimos dos años, se ha hablado mucho de la recesión. Y a mucha gente le preocupa que, si tuviéramos una, la tasa de desempleo se dispararía. Algunos incluso temen que el aumento del desempleo conduzca a una ola de ejecuciones hipotecarias similar a la que ocurrió hace 15 años.Sin embargo, la última Encuesta de Pronósticos Económicos de Wall Street Journal (WSJ por sus siglas en inglés) revela que, por primera vez en más de un año, menos de la mitad (48 %) de los economistas cree que se producirá una recesión el próximo año:“Los economistas se están volviendo optimistas sobre la economía de los Estados Unidos… los economistas redujeron la probabilidad de una recesión en el próximo año, del promedio de 54 % en julio a un 48 % más optimista. Es la primera vez que ponen la probabilidad por debajo del 50 % desde mediados del año pasado”.Si más de la mitad de los expertos ya no esperan una recesión el próximo año, es natural que piense que esos mismos expertos tampoco esperan que la tasa de desempleo suba mucho, y tendría razón. La siguiente gráfica utiliza datos de esa misma encuesta del WSJ para mostrar exactamente lo que los economistas proyectan para la tasa de desempleo en los próximos tres años (vea la siguiente gráfica): Si esas proyecciones de los expertos son correctas, más personas perderán sus empleos el próximo año. Y las pérdidas de empleos de cualquier tipo son devastadoras para esas personas y sus seres queridos.Sin embargo, la pregunta aquí es: ¿habrá suficientes pérdidas de empleos para causar una ola de ejecuciones hipotecarias que colapse el mercado de la vivienda? Con base en el contexto histórico de Macrotrends y la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales (BLS, por sus siglas en inglés), la respuesta es no. Esto se debe a que la tasa del desempleo se encuentra actualmente cerca de mínimos históricos (vea la gráfica a continuación): Como muestra la barra color naranja de la gráfica, el promedio de la tasa de desempleo que data de 1948 es del 5.7 %. La barra color rojo muestra que, la última vez que el mercado de la vivienda se desplomó, inmediatamente después de la crisis financiera de 2008, el promedio de la tasa de desempleo subió al 8.3 %. Ambas barras son mucho más altas que la tasa de desempleo actual (que se muestra en la barra azul).En perspectiva, las proyecciones muestran que es probable que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga por debajo del promedio de los últimos 75 años. Y eso significa que no veremos una ola de ejecuciones hipotecarias que afectaría severamente el mercado de la vivienda.En conclusiónLa mayoría de los economistas ya no esperan que se produzca una recesión en los próximos 12 meses. Es por eso por lo que tampoco esperan un aumento drástico en la tasa de desempleo que conduzca a una ola de ejecuciones hipotecarias y otro colapso del mercado de la vivienda. Si tiene preguntas sobre el desempleo y su impacto en el mercado de la vivienda, comuníquese con un profesional en bienes raíces.
Why the Economy Won’t Tank the Housing Market
If you’re worried about a coming recession, you’re not alone. Over the past couple of years, there’s been a lot of recession talk. And many people worry, if we do have one, it would cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. Some even fear that a spike in unemployment would lead to a rash of foreclosures similar to what happened 15 years ago.However, the latest Economic Forecasting Survey from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reveals that, for the first time in over a year, less than half (48%) of economists believe a recession will actually occur within the next year:“Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy . . . economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”If over half of the experts no longer expect a recession within the next year, you might naturally think those same experts also don’t expect the unemployment rate to jump way up – and you’d be right. The graph below uses data from that same WSJ survey to show exactly what the economists project for the unemployment rate over the next three years (see graph below): If those expert projections are correct, more people will lose their jobs in the upcoming year. And job losses of any kind are devastating for those people and their loved ones.However, the question here is: will there be enough job losses to cause a wave of foreclosures that will crash the housing market? Based on historical context from Macrotrends and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the answer is no. That’s because the unemployment rate is currently near all-time lows (see graph below): As the orange bar in the graph shows, the average unemployment rate dating back to 1948 is 5.7%. The red bar shows, the last time the housing market crashed, in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the average unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those bars are much higher than the unemployment rate today (shown in the blue bar).Moving forward, projections show the unemployment rate is likely to stay beneath the 75-year average. And that means we won’t see a wave of foreclosures that would severely impact the housing market.Bottom LineMost economists no longer expect a recession to occur in the next 12 months. That’s why they also don’t expect a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate that would lead to a rash of foreclosures and another housing market crash. If you have questions about unemployment and its impact on the housing market, connect with a real estate professional.
Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?
When it comes to what’s happening in the housing market, there’s a lot of confusion going around right now. You may hear one thing in conversation with your friends, see something totally different on the news, and read something on social media that contradicts both of those thoughts. And, if you’re thinking about making a move, that can leave you with a lot of lingering questions. That’s where a trusted local real estate agent comes in.Here are the top 3 questions people are asking about today’s housing market, and the data to help answer them.1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in recent years. And, if you’re looking to buy a home, that impacts how much you can afford. That’s why so many buyers want to know what’s ahead for mortgage rates. The answer to that question is: no one can say for certain, but here’s what we know based on historical trends.There’s a long-standing relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. Basically, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Over the past year, inflation was up, so mortgage rates were as well. But inflation is easing now. And this is why the Federal Reserve has recently paused their federal funds rate hikes, which means many experts believe mortgage rates will begin to come down.And in some ways, we’ve started to see hints of slightly lower mortgage rates in recent weeks. But it’s certainly been volatile and will likely continue to be that way going into next year. Some ongoing variation is to be expected, but the anticipation is, that in 2024, we’ll see a downward trend. As Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics, says:“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think - in the weeks and months to come.”2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?While there’s been a lot of concern prices would come crashing down this year, data shows that didn’t happen. In fact, home prices are rising in most of the nation. Experts say that trend will continue, just at a slower pace that’s much more normal for the housing market – and that’s a good thing.To help show just how confident experts are in this continued appreciation, take a look at the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics. It’s a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As the graph below shows, the consensus is, that prices will keep climbing next year, and in the years to come. 3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?While recession talk has been a common thing over the past few years, there’s good news on that front.The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls experts on this topic regularly. And last year at this time, most of them thought a recession would have happened by now. But as experts look at all the leading indicators today, they’re changing their minds and saying a recession is getting less and less likely. The latest results show that more experts now think we’re not headed for another recession (see chart below): This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.Bottom LineThe big takeaway? The data shows there isn’t cause for concern – there are actually more signs of hope. Reach out to a local real estate agent to talk more about the housing market questions on your mind heading into the new year.
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